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Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing deteriorating consumer and business confidence, and the economic impact of higher tariffs. The bank anticipates three interest rate cuts this year, despite inflation concerns, as it shifts focus to labor market issues and growth stagnation. Meanwhile, Moody's Mark Zandi has increased recession odds to 40%, suggesting a potential "recession by design" due to current policies.
Goldman Sachs has raised the odds of a US recession to 35% within the next year, citing escalating tariffs from Trump's trade war as a key factor. The bank also increased its inflation forecast and adjusted its GDP growth estimate for 2025 to just 1%, while predicting a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.5%. Consumer confidence has significantly declined, with many Americans anticipating higher unemployment, as the administration's aggressive tariff policies continue to unfold.
President Trump is set to announce a series of tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day," aimed at reducing foreign imports and boosting American manufacturing. While he believes these measures will revitalize the U.S. economy, economists warn they could lead to higher consumer prices and sluggish growth, with potential retaliatory actions from other nations. Global leaders express concern that such tariffs could disrupt trade and harm job markets, emphasizing the risks of escalating trade tensions.
Zoltan Pozsar, a former Credit Suisse strategist, is now advising President Trump through his consulting firm, proposing innovative financial solutions like exchanging short-term US government bonds for hundred-year zero-coupon bonds. This strategy aims to enhance US financial flexibility while offering countries protection under the US nuclear umbrella. The approach could also address the debt ceiling issue, although it may have implications for countries holding US bonds, such as Switzerland.
Bank of America analysts suggest that the concept of a "Trump put" reflects a belief that the president would intervene to stabilize markets during downturns, similar to the historical "Greenspan put" associated with the Federal Reserve. Despite initial market optimism following Trump's election, ongoing tariff threats have created volatility, with recent reports indicating potential adjustments to trade policies. The Fed's cautious stance on interest rates further highlights concerns about economic growth amid inflation pressures.
Top Trump administration officials inadvertently shared sensitive military plans in a Signal messaging group that included a journalist, prompting calls for a congressional investigation into the breach of national security. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denied sharing war plans, while Democratic lawmakers condemned the incident as illegal and reckless. The White House confirmed an investigation is underway, with President Trump reportedly unaware of the situation.
Republican senators are being urged to promote President Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which aims to eliminate wasteful federal spending and reduce bureaucracy. Despite public support for tackling waste, dissatisfaction with DOGE's execution and Elon Musk's leadership persists. The National Republican Senatorial Committee emphasizes the importance of showcasing successes and collaborating with DOGE to prepare for the upcoming midterm elections.
President Trump announced a full pardon for Devon Archer, a former business partner of Hunter Biden, during the NCAA wrestling championships in Philadelphia. Archer, who faced legal troubles linked to a deal with Hunter, expressed gratitude for the pardon, highlighting the Biden family's disregard for truth and justice. This move comes as Archer's testimony has been pivotal in exposing alleged corruption involving the Biden family.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has criticized the accuracy of GDP numbers, asserting that the Biden administration overlooked the real economic struggles faced by Americans. He emphasized the importance of addressing public sentiment over statistical data, as rising gas prices and grocery costs continue to strain household finances. Amidst a turbulent economic landscape and a trade war initiated by Trump, Bessent vowed to prioritize understanding the anxieties of the public in shaping economic policy.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Ruler of Abu Dhabi, met with US President Donald Trump to enhance the UAE-US strategic partnership, focusing on cooperation in artificial intelligence, technology, infrastructure, and healthcare. Additionally, Sheikh Tahnoon engaged with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on economic collaboration in digital transformation and AI investments, while discussions with National Security Adviser Michael Waltz addressed regional security, cybersecurity, and energy security.
Scott Bessent
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